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Handicapping the Belmont Stakes is a referendum on the first two legs of the Triple Crown, with a hefty dose of pedigree analysis to find horses who can stay the 1 1/2-mile trip.

If the same horse won both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, do you think he can pass the "Test of the Champion" and become a Triple Crown legend? Sentiment might lead you in that direction, but considering the long drought between Affirmed in 1978 and American Pharoah in 2015, the Derby/Preakness hero usually has to buck a weighty trend. Wear and tear over the series can take its toll, and bad luck has been known to strike too.

If different horses have won the Derby and Preakness, did you find one much more persuasive in victory? Horses are more impressive if they overcome trouble in running, an unfavorable pace scenario, or an excessively wide trip. Also compare the BRIS Speed ratings for the first two jewels of the Triple Crown: was one considerably faster than the other? Did a sloppy track on Derby or Preakness Day help the winner, and will he find similar conditions?

Don't forget about top horses who ran in the Derby, sat out the Preakness, and point explicitly for the Belmont Stakes. Aside from getting some extra time to regroup from their exertions at Churchill Downs, these runners are often just the type to excel over the added distance of the Belmont.

That brings us to the key factor, pedigree. Although bloodlines are important in separating contenders from pretenders in the 1 1/4-mile Derby, real champions can sometimes push their pedigree envelope at Churchill Downs. But toss in two more furlongs at Belmont Park -- a marathon trip they'll likely never try again -- and a pedigree without sufficient stamina turns merciless.

New shooters to the Belmont often have the right pedigree, but are untested at this level of competition. Take a good look at the newcomers, while remembering that the percentages lean heavily in favor of Triple Crown veterans.