Preakness Stakes Home | 2016 | Betting | Odds | Handicapping | Prep Races | Winners | History | Results | Tickets | Contenders

Preakness handicapping often boils down to a referendum on the Kentucky Derby winner.

If you think that the Derby winner was convincing, you'll want to stick with him at Pimlico, where he'll meet several of the same horses he beat at Churchill Downs. Some might argue that the Derby winner could "bounce," or regress, coming back on just two weeks' rest. Even so, a worthy Derby winner will typically maintain his high level of form in the Preakness.

But sometimes there are reasons to question the merit of a Derby winner. Did he spring an upset in circumstances that are unlikely to be repeated – such as benefiting from a total pace meltdown on the front end, taking to a sloppy track that others didn't enjoy, or capitalizing on trouble suffered by other contenders?

If so, you'll want to zero in on the Derby loser who's most likely to rebound in the Preakness. Every Derby usually has at least one hard-luck story, so look for horses that were compromised by troubled trips, especially if they had been prime contenders with good BRIS Speed ratings. Perhaps a front-running type was softened up by pace pressure in the Derby, but could find an easier job as the controlling speed at Pimlico.

Part of the Preakness puzzle involves the "new shooters" who didn't run in the Derby. Occasionally they can rise to the challenge, but it's a better percentage play to opt for battle-tested horses coming out of the Derby crucible.

As with Derby handicapping, the pace scenario, track conditions and BRIS Speed ratings are all important to consider. But unlike the Derby, post position is less of a detriment in the smaller field at Pimlico, and pedigree analysis tends to be less significant. The Derby runners are cutting back slightly in trip, and the new shooters are often proven at up to 1 1/8 miles, making the 1 3/16-mile Preakness not so much a leap into the unknown.